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Posted by Toe on 16:22:55 10/30/11
In Reply to: Re: Fallout Conditions Again! Cape FL Fallout! posted by Steve siegel
OK, I recall a discussion concerning the overuse of the term "fallout" a few years ago on the Birdbrains listserve, and perhaps it's time to have one here. I believe the word "fallout" is the most overused term in birding. A true fallout can mean something different to different people, but from what I recall, birders with much more experience, both in years and areas covered, than me all agreed that a true fallout is an event that a birder only experiences once in maybe 10-15 years in one place if they are lucky. In my almost 13 years of birding, I've been lucky to experience two events I would call fallouts, with the second one being our great event two weekends ago.
Now today, after reading the above post, I went to Sadowski against my better judgment to see if there was indeed a fallout. I saw one female BTB. I spoke to Brian who went to Matheson in response to the same head's up and he only saw a few BTB's. Judging by Steve's results at the Cape itself, in hindsight we can safely say this was no fallout. I don't doubt that there were a few more birds passing through is response to the weather this morning, but I've had many, many days where there is a small, localized flock of warblers et al and your first impression is "fallout!", only to find it there really wasn't much beyond your area. You really don't know if it's a fallout until after you recap the day's events. I've had 80 individual warblers in one large ficus tree, and I'm not making this up, and I didn't run to call it a fallout. Guess what, it wasn't. It was just 80 warblers in a tree.
So, what is a fallout. If you ask someone who birds the great fallout traps in other states, they'd probably say 25-30 warbler species in large numbers in one day, hundreds of tanagers, orioles, grosbeaks, thrushes, and so on. Some numbers that come to mind are 15 Golden-winged, 12 Ceruleans, 22 Philly Vireos, 187 Baltimore Orioles (one birder, Sabine Woods, 4/30/08). I'd argue that what we experienced two weeks ago qualifiers as a fallout by anyone's standards. Unlike some other migrants traps, like Tortugas or Ft. DeSoto, which are rather small enclaves surrounded by unsuitable areas, here in Dade we have many managed areas that serve to attract migrants, plus untold smaller areas within the urban landscape that also provide cover. If all the birds that dropped in Dade had come in to one or two localized places, we'd easily had the kind of variety and numbers other more famous fallout traps get. Despite birds spread all over south FL, I still managed to see 21 warblers in one day, 25 in two days, and 28 in three days. And, there were a couple species I missed. What we had two weeks ago I'd say was a fallout. But, if you look at my post from 10/15, which is the day I saw 21 warbler species, I did not call it a fallout. It was too early to tell. I did say that bird numbers were increasing late in the day, and that the following day looked promising. I even titled my post "We don't need to stinking fallout." Bottome line, the term "fallout" should be used sparingly.
As for getting a fallout this late in the season, I'd say it's highly unlikely. Most the species needed to make up a fallout have passed through and are already at their wintering grounds. I don't see how we could possibly get 20 species of warblers in one small area this late in the season, not neotropical migrants anyway. If what we get are just big numbers of only a few species, then it's not a fallout. I don't care if you see 1 yellow-rumped or 1,000 yellow-rumpeds, they are still yellow-rumpeds!
So please, save the term "fallout" for that once-in-a-decade event that is so awesome that it even stops me from whining for a few days. Opinions welcomed.
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