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Posted by Rock Jetty on 16:52:25 12/09/14
In Reply to: Re: Swainson's Warbler- Enchanted Forest Elaine Gordon Park 12/8 posted by Toe
Toe,
As someone who has spent the last 13 years visiting NW Arkansas in the winter (10-15 days at a time). I can tell you that food availability is definitely a determining factor. Although single-digit temperatures (and below zero) are rare, temperatures in the twenties and even teens are not. Feeders are ALWAYS active in winter, constantly.
I have experienced some milder temperatures in NW Arkansas in the last few winters; however, these events get supplemented by arctic blasts here and there. I can t say if overall bird abundance is greater in milder winters. Then there are the irruption years and those are not directly correlated to climate. Temperatures may be mild and all of a sudden I m seeing Pine Siskins and Red-breasted Nuthatches left and right.
It s hard to determine year-to-year bird abundance unless you are actually monitoring it. You are bringing up a hypothesis based on some anecdotal observations (yours and others) but you need more empirical evidence. A good starting point is with a database (eBird, CBCs, etc.), but you have to be careful because the effort has to be standardized.
If you really want to defend it set up monitoring plots or patches or whatever and put in the same amount of effort every time. Take note of multiple parameters - temperature, time of day, size of area or distance covered, whether you are wearing pants or not, etc. And hey wait a second, this sounds like eBird! Bottom line: submit your observations in eBird and analyze your data!
-RJ
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